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		<doi>10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71031-X</doi>
		<issn>0140-6736</issn>
		<citationkey>LoweCaCoBaBaStRo:2015:InPrFo</citationkey>
		<title>Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts of epidemics</title>
		<year>2015</year>
		<typeofwork>journal article</typeofwork>
		<secondarytype>PRE PI</secondarytype>
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		<author>Lowe, Rachel,</author>
		<author>Carvalho, Marilia Sá,</author>
		<author>Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos,</author>
		<author>Barcellos, Christovam,</author>
		<author>Bailey, Trevor C.,</author>
		<author>Stephenson, David B.,</author>
		<author>Rodó, Xavier,</author>
		<group></group>
		<group></group>
		<group>CPT-CPT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR</group>
		<affiliation>Institut Català de Ciéncies del Clima</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats</affiliation>
		<affiliation></affiliation>
		<affiliation>Institut Català de Ciéncies del Clima</affiliation>
		<electronicmailaddress>racheol.lowe@ic3.cat</electronicmailaddress>
		<electronicmailaddress></electronicmailaddress>
		<electronicmailaddress>caio.coelho@cptec.inpe.br</electronicmailaddress>
		<journal>The Lancet</journal>
		<volume>15</volume>
		<number>1</number>
		<pages>20</pages>
		<transferableflag>1</transferableflag>
		<contenttype>External Contribution</contenttype>
		<versiontype>publisher</versiontype>
		<keywords>Forecasts.</keywords>
		<abstract>We are grateful to Eduardo Massad and colleagues1 for discussing the results of our study2 that addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the World Cup in Brazil. We believe our results are not comparable to point estimates obtained using deterministic models; however, we welcome the opportunity to discuss and clarify the interpretation of probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk. The approaches (including aim, methodological framework, data, and population) that we used2 differ in several ways from those used by Massad and colleagues3 to estimate the risk of acquiring dengue fever during the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil. Massad and colleagues used a mathematical modelling approach, which was based on weekly notified cases in previous weeks, to estimate the number of cases of dengue in foreign visitors to Brazil. We used a spatiotemporal statistical model, driven by climate information and dengue incidence 4 months previously, to predict the probability of exceeding given thresholds for the whole Brazilian population.</abstract>
		<area>MET</area>
		<language>en</language>
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